Evaluasi Probabilistik Keandalan dan Energy Not Supplied Distribusi 20 kV ULP Karawang Kota Berbasis Monte Carlo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52436/1.jpti.1750Keywords:
Distribusi 20 kV, Energy Not Supplied, Keandalan, Monte Carlo, SAIDI, SAIFIAbstract
Gangguan pada sistem distribusi 20 kV di wilayah Karawang memicu Energy Not Supplied (ENS) dan menurunkan keandalan sistem. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kinerja keandalan ULP Karawang Kota sekaligus merumuskan strategi mitigasinya. Novelty penelitian ini terletak pada penerapan Simulasi Monte Carlo (MCS) berbasis kombinasi distribusi Poisson (frekuensi) dan Lognormal (durasi) untuk menangkap sifat stokastik sistem secara akurat. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan nilai SAIFI 0,1427 kali/pelanggan/bulan, SAIDI 0,1994 jam/pelanggan/bulan, dan EENS 16.947,38 kWh/bulan. Meskipun masih memenuhi standar SPLN, analisis mendeteksi risiko positive skewness yang mengindikasikan potensi gangguan ekstrem. Kesimpulannya, PLN perlu bertransformasi ke strategi proaktif melalui mitigasi preventif dan pemetaan zona kritis untuk mencegah kerugian energi masif.
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